The chart below (via @businessinsider) shows three lines:
- The incoming Obama Administration's projections for what the unemployment rate would be if no stimulus was enacted in the depths of the financial crisis (light blue).
- The Obama Administration's projections for what the unemployment rate would be with the President's stimulus plan (dark blue).
- The actual unemployment rate (it's now 8.3%).
The actual unemployment rate in the chart, you will note, is much higher than the "nightmare scenario" initially envisioned by the Obama Administration (with no stimulus). In either case--stimulus or no stimulus--the unemployment rate was supposed to be down to 5.5% by now. And it's actually still 8.3%.
Eric Platt/Business Insider, Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, "The Job Impact of the America Recovery & Reinvestment Plan," 2009, Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein for the President's Council of Economic Advisers