Surfing at 32,000 ft.

Yesterday I flew back on American from New York to Texas. Even though I have a bazillion miles on AA,  I have been avoiding them like the plague the last few years (don't get me started!).  These days I prefer Southwest or JetBlue... friendlier people, newer planes and convenient routes.  But on this trip, AA made sense so off I went. I have to say, I was somewhat giddy when I saw the friendly "Wi-Fi Onboard" sign!  As soon as allowed (ok, maybe a few minutes before) I logged on to GoGo (the provider) paid my $8 and started surfing.  The connection was flawless.  I checked email, posted to Twitter, checked in on Foursquare, sent text messages via Google Voice, browsed the news online and recorded a fascinating live video of me and my box of raisins!  I wanted to try Skype but the terms of service clearly stated no voice over IP calls.  Yeah, so anyway I can confirm it works too! While I was mostly goofing off, the ability to have Wi-Fi in flight is a game changer from a communication and productivity perspective.  Business travelers spend a lot of time sitting on airplanes and honestly I find that time generally pretty productive. The price of $8 for a 3 1/2 hour flight is reasonable and the connection was quite stable. My only complaint is that while you can share the service between mobile devices (although not simultaneously), you cannot switch between a mobile device and a laptop.  Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things but it would be nice.  Considering the airline industry is struggling to grow revenue, Wi-Fi is a potential gold mine.  I feel a lot better about paying $8 for internet access than $10 for a cold, stale turkey sandwich! Happy flying! Tom Cuthbert Full and fair disclosure:  I own Southwest Airlines (LUV) stock and am long.

Netflix Movie Streaming Hookup

My dad is a smart cookie!  As a PhD Electrical Engineer and published author, he knows his stuff when it comes to technology.  For Christmas, I got him a Roku Video Player to connect to his Netflix service.  I asked him to write a blog about his experience and I'm happy to have him as a guest blogger on my site.  (Looks like my gift was a success!)  His post is below... thanks dad! Netflix Movie Streaming Hookup It is easy to select from more than 17,000 movies to view on your TV if you have a high-speed Internet connection for both a Personal Computer and a Digital Video Player. The cost is just a little more than $100 up front and $9/month. My son, Tom III, asked me to describe my recent experience creating such a setup. Several alternative ways of doing this are described at: http://www.netflix.com/GetStartedStreamingInstantly A Roku Video Player was a Christmas gift from my son, but it can be bought from Amazon.com by searching there with keywords “Roku HD Player” to find it available for $99.99 plus shipping.

It is a small box with separate power supply that connects to a TV using the included composite audio/video cables or by connecting to the S-Video or HDMI high-definition jacks to get better picture quality. The Roku Player also must connect to the Internet by either Ethernet cable or by its built-in Wi-Fi if you have a wireless local area network (LAN). You can sign up for Netflix’s cheapest option of $8.99 per month “1 DVD out at-a-time (Unlimited)” with a menu of 100,000 rented movies and TV shows on DVDs sent by mail, which also includes the Netflix "Watch Instantly" Internet streaming feature for more than 17,000 of those titles. Activating Watch Instantly is easy by running Netflix.com on your PC while the Roku Player is connected to both the TV and Internet.

The Roku Player comes with a small remote control, and the TV will show you a five-digit code, which you then enter on your PC using the Activate feature on the Netflix website. Any time after that you can add selected movies to your Netflix Instant Queue on the PC. Movies that can be streamed to your TV are marked with a small blue Play button. That queue also appears on your Roku TV screen where you can select a movie to watch. Netflix will ask you by e-mail about picture quality when you watch your first streamed movie. I chose to connect my Roku Player to one of the High Definition HDMI jacks on my Sony LCD TV. Because that port was already used for my DVD player, I bought additional accessories by searching Amazon using the following keywords (I also show their respective costs): “HDMI cable 3 ft”   $3.13 “HDMI cable 6 ft”   $9.99 “Apogee HDMI 3x1 mini switcher”  $15.70 The small Apogee Switcher has one HDMI port to connect to the TV and three HDMI ports to connect to video devices, one being my Roku Player. The included remote control is not essential because the Player has a button to select one of the three video devices. It also has a smart select feature, which switches to the video device last turned on.  The Roku Player hookup with my Apple iMac PC and Airport Extreme base station worked flawlessly the first try. Finally, current background information is available for these video-streaming systems. For example, search for the keywords “Netflix Watch Instantly” at: http://news.google.com. Netflix's streaming service could be endangered if broadband Internet providers should impose limits on heavy bandwidth applications like video. There have been reports of proposed bandwidth restraints that may be necessary without advances in digital network technology. My Cox Preferred cable download speed is about 12 megabits per second (Mbps) and streamed Netflix movies started in less than a minute and played smoothly with excellent picture quality. A Typical DVD movie disk contains about 32,000 Mb. The Roku Player tests your Internet connection speed and delivers the TV resolution your connection can handle without interruption. Roku notes that speeds greater than 2.5 Mbps provide highest quality, and speeds less than 1.5 Mbps provide basic TV quality. Apparently terrestrial broadband Internet service is best for acceptable movie video streaming. Some satellite Internet providers limit the amount of download data to less than 3600 Mb downloaded in any 24-hour period. Thomas R, Cuthbert, Jr.

Moving Forward by Stepping Back

In April of 2005 I sat at my usual corner table at Krispy Kreme donuts in San Antonio.  

It had become my “thinking place” and every few weeks I would ponder life over a couple of donuts and a cup of coffee. I was reading a series of articles on the growing problem of “click fraud”.  Our former parent company, Optimal iQ, had recently found a group of fake clicks and we were intrigued by the problem.  Perhaps it was the highly caffeinated sugar rush but at that moment, I had an epiphany.  I realized the problem of click fraud was only going to get worse and more complex.  Measure this challenge against the rapid growth of search marketing and there was an opportunity staring me in the face.

Click Forensics was born in January of 2006 through the hard work of my co-founders and our dedicated team. We raised over $21,000,000 to solve a problem, execute a plan and lead the industry.  Today Click Forensics is the clear leader in traffic quality management. Our original vision was to “help ensure advertisers get what they pay for” and today that is exactly what we do.  I’m very proud of Click Forensics and excited about the opportunity to continue to serve and improve the online advertising community. In June of last year I made the decision to begin my exit from the company.  Click Forensics is growing rapidly and developing cutting edge technology our competitors can’t touch.  My role has deliberately been changing over the last year and I feel I owed it to myself and my family to explore “what’s next” for me.  So last week, I formally stepped back to a board of director position.  I will continue to help the company in any way I can and remain an active advisor, board member and chairman of the Click Quality Council. As I reflect on the last four years or so of our growth, there are eight things that come to mind that I am most proud of:

1. We raised awareness about click fraud – Sure we may have ruffled a few feathers when we

launched our Click Fraud Index ™ in the spring of 2006, but those numbers caused everyone to stand up and listen.  Google called us out in August of that year and dismissed the problem of click fraud as insignificant, claiming their own efforts to stop it were "reasonable".  The problem was hugely significant and no standards existed to stop it.  Something had to be done so we took the lead.  With the support of the advertising community, we “encouraged” Google to take the problem seriously and listen.

We brought “both sides to the table – No one wanted to talk about the problem of click fraud in 2006.  We recognized that solving this problem was in the interest of everyone in the advertising ecosystem.  We worked hard to listen to advertisers and work with search engines to develop sustaining solutions that are communally beneficial.

We built a bridge – In a groundbreaking partnership with Yahoo!, we built the FACTr™ system (Fully Automated Click Tracking and Reconciliation).  

FACTr allows advertisers to communicate directly to the ad providers via Click Forensics.  Yahoo! led the way and by the fall of 2007, Looksmart, Google and others followed suit.

We saved advertisers money – Our tools and insight are effective in identifying unwanted traffic and allow an advertiser to work with the ad provider to get what they pay for.  Hundreds of customers have used our technology to find click fraud and improve their campaign ROI.

We led the charge for standards – Working closely with the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)

and dozens of online advertising companies we developed standards that were released in June of last year.  It was a team effort from Google, Microsoft, Yahoo!, Click Forensics and many others.  The result is a document that can be built upon for years to come.

We worked with some of the best – Our customer list includes industry-leading advertisers like Vegas.com, Progressive Insurance, Experian and EBay.  On the ad network side our clients include leaders like Adknowledge, Turn, Yahoo! and Lycos.  The relationships I have made through customers, partner companies and industry leaders means a lot to me (even Shuman!).  The online advertising industry is vibrant and growing.  Some of the brightest people I have ever been associated make this industry great.

We caught click fraud – We have an incredible team of scientists, engineers and developers. Many of them have PhD’s and tremendous industry experience.  We have put their knowledge to work by innovating ahead of the fast moving bad guys.  One example of this is our identification of the “Bahama Botnet”, an organized group of fraudsters using a highly sophisticated approach.  Our discovery of this (subsequently alerting Microsoft, Yahoo! and Google) saved advertisers from paying for these clicks.  Additionally, it forced the bad guys to change their approach.

We changed online advertising… for good – The work that we have done and continue to

do is meant to have a sustaining effect on online advertising.  Improving traffic quality in real time means that publishers and ad networks can send out highly qualified clicks to advertisers and enhance trust.  This relationship, built on standards and delivered on quality, will accelerate the growth of online advertising for years to come.  We are proud to play an important part in the ecosystem.

I have enjoyed the opportunity afforded me to play a role in our company and the industry.  I'm deeply appreciative of the support, encouragement and hard work from our employees, partners and board of directors.  It's been an amazing five year ride! And so now I look ahead.  Currently, I’m enjoying an “entrepreneurial sabbatical” to consider options and explore opportunities over the next few months.  I’m enjoying time with friends and family, traveling and learning about new businesses.  I’m keeping busy by consulting with an advertising technology company, joined the advisory board of an NBA agent firm and of course reading, writing and learning.  At some point, I’ll head back to Krispy Kreme.  There are an unlimited supply of donuts, coffee and problems to solve.  I can’t wait~ Tom Cuthbert

Click Fraud Gets Slicker

Andy Greensberg of Forbes has written about the problem of click fraud for years.  In fact it was Forbes who published a "debate" between Shuman Ghosemajumder of Google and me that helped set the record straight about discrepancies.  While the problem of click fraud has been widely covered by media outlets ranging from the Wall St. Journal to Search Engine Watch, Forbes (and Greenberg) have always been on the leading edge.This is still the case today as Andy wrote and excellent piece on the problem titled, "Google Faces The Slickest Click Fraud Yet."  The article focuses on the work of Harvard professor Ben Edelman.  Ben's site (www.benedelman.org) is an impressive compilation of research and reports on a wide range of topics with a focus on spyware, click fraud and online advertising. The article highlights "a new form of click fraud that accomplishes what online fraud watchdogs might have once thought impossible: a scam that not only simulates valid clicks on a Google ad sold to an advertiser, but seems to result in a real customer who spends money on the advertiser's site."  This is the worst case scenario for an advertiser and Edelman is right on in his method of identifying the threat.  While this approach is limited in it's ability to scale, it is the most significant finding since Click Forensics identified the "Bahama Botnet". I applaud the work of Ben Edelman and others as well as Andy and the folks at Forbes for continuing to shine the light on this ongoing problem for our industry.  For over four years now, we have been on a mission to "ensure advertisers get what they pay for".  As long as Google lacks transparency, there will be click fraud.  Ben ends by saying, "Google owes its advertisers something better than that."  I agree and we need more guys like Ben to help hold their feet to the fire. Tom Cuthbert

Sixteen Consistent Characteristics of Greatness

I read a blog post yesterday that really caught my attention.  It highlighted a list created by Don Yaeger, former editor of Sports Illustrated.  Don has put together a list of "Sixteen Consistent Characteristics of Greatness".  While we all aspire to be great, Don has hit on traits that separate the great from everyone else. I read this list and thought of people I admire.  It is the best list of attributes of successful entrepreneurs, athletes and business executives I have ever read.  I thought I would share the complete list with you here... it is well worth the read.  Maybe you see some of these traits in yourself or someone in your life... Sixteen Consistent Characteristics of Greatness How they think: 1. It’s personal They hate to lose more than they love to win. People that aspire to greatness know that defeat just isn’t an option. 2. Rubbing elbows They understand the value of association. I always say that we become the people that surround us. Those of us who are aspiring to greatness, it is our job to rub elbows with the right people and to learn what makes them successful and what keeps them going. In turn, it is up to them to help us better ourselves. And if you can’t change the people around you, then choose different people to be around. Think about it. 3. Believe They have faith in a higher power. It is proven that a strong spiritual commitment, and a strong belief in faith is linked to a positive outcome. In our current economic state, always remember the power of a positive mind-set and the importance of belief in beating the impossible. 4. Contagious enthusiasm They are positive thinkers… They are enthusiastic… and that enthusiasm rubs off. When you’re trying to work through your challenge-professional or personal – do so with the belief that the best is yet to come. Stay positive. How they prepare: 5. Hope for the best but… They prepare for all possibilities before they step on the field. I am an eternal optimist. But I am also a realist. When I enter into any situation, I am excited about the possibilities it may bring. But I also know that there are a lot of variables beyond my control. So I contingency-plan. 6. What off-season? They are always working towards the next game… The goal is what’s ahead, and there’s always something ahead. if you visualize where you want to be and work backwards from there, you can always be moving the ball forward. 7. Visualize victory They see victory before the game begins. Positive visualization is a proven ingredient of a successful outcome. 8. Inner fire They use adversity as fuel.One thing in life is certain… none of us gets through without adversity. What matters is that we find the strength to work through it. When we are knocked down, it may take hours, days, weeks, or months, but we need to get back up. For me, I’m at the point where challenging situations invigorate me. I’m mentally tough enough to embrace the adversity heading my way, overcome it, and learn from it. How they work: 9. Ice in their veins They are risk-takers and don’t fear making a mistake. Failure is one of our greatest teachers. I’m amazed at how much risk-tolerance I have acquired. But it’s the one component that enables me to keep growing. If I stopped to think about how much I have on the line, I would be paralyzed. “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career,” NBA legend Michael Jordan, who was known for his late-game heroics in addition to six national titles, once said. “I’ve lost almost 300 games – 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.” 10. When all else fails They know how – and when – to adjust their game plan. Flexibility and adaptability is essential to survival. I wrote a previous column on this exact topic… the ability to shift when everything around you is shifting too. 11. Ultimate teammate They will assume whatever role is necessary for the team to win. Individual accomplishments are important, but the sum is always greater in value than the individual parts. How much do you step up to help those around you? When others around you thrive, you thrive as well. 12. Not just about the Benjamins They don’t play just for the money. It’s never about the money. And if it is, it’s about the wrong thing. The money will come if you follow your passion… if you become a part of something bigger than yourself. As a business owner, I view our profits as a catalyst to build a greater organization. How they live: 13. Do unto others They know character is defined by how they treat those who cannot help them. One of the greatest sources of satisfaction is helping others, from a truly altruistic standpoint. We all have something to give… our time, our experiences, our compassion. 14. When no one is watching They are comfortable in the mirror… they live their life with integrity. I always tell my kids… “What matters is not what you do when everyone is watching. What matters is what you do when no one is watching.” Your ultimate accountability has to be to yourself. 15. When everyone is watching They embrace the idea of being a role model. As leaders, we have an obligation to promote positive leadership, and demonstrate the positive influence we can have on others. Our actions shape those coming behind us. 16. Records are made to be broken They know their legacy isn’t what they did on the field. They are well-rounded. A legacy isn’t what you took from this world. A legacy is what you leave behind. Now go out and accomplish something! Tom Cuthbert

"The World is a Complicated Place, Hobbes"

I really miss Calvin and Hobbes.  For years I enjoyed reading them to my son and laughing together.  Today the cartoonist, Bill Watterson is retired and my son is reading Fantasy Football stats!

Calvin represented the boy in all of us.  He was inquisitive, fearless (to a point) and adventurous.  I enjoyed his imagination and certainly saw some of me in Calvin, and Calvin in my son. Hobbes is the quintessential calming influence.  The imaginary tiger was both a friend and counselor.  Together they made a great team and got into (and out of) more trouble than I ever did! The comic below is one of my favorites.  Often times, Calvin and Hobbes dealt with 'big picture' issues in a simple way.  Live life for a few years and you realize the world is a complicated place.  There are definitely days when I would have loved to take Hobbes advice and just "take a nap in a tree and wait for dinner."

I hope this holiday season your world can be uncomplicated.  Enjoy the little things and appreciate the blessings of life.  While the world may not be as simple as black and white, it is an awesome place when filled with the color of life. My favorite quote is by Ronald Reagan, "Enjoy life, it's ungrateful not to." Indeed. Tom Cuthbert

The LeBron Switch is Not About the Number

LeBron James is arguably the best player under 30 in the NBA, I don't think there is much debate.  So when he announced recently that "out of respect for Michael Jordan" he was going to wear the number 6 next year, there were a few eyebrows raised. There are currently 11 other players in the NBA who sport MJ's digits. (Most notably Marcus Camby and Kevin Martin, least notably Stephen Graham and Jodie Meeks).  So why is LeBron so concerned about the number?  I think it's because he is already thinking of a change of scenery next year and a little spiffing up for the ole brand. Sure there are huge marketing benefits for changing numbers. You may recall Kobe going from 8 to 24 a few years ago.  That switch pushed him past LeBron in jersey sales.  But in this case, I don't think LeBron is worried about selling gear in the near future.  And with all due respect to both messieurs James and Jordan, it's not about honoring MJ.  If it were, LeBron would realize that Bill Russell, a #6, (11 championships to Jordan's 6) should be honored as well. I like LeBron and think he is great for the NBA.  But let's get real, changing numbers is not about honoring anyone. It's about positioning for next year and marketing.  LeBron is a brand, and every once and awhile, brands need to be freshened up.  So let's not hide the fact that LeBron is a savvy marketer as well as an amazing athlete. One other note... I have decided to change my name in honor of Tom Landry (or maybe Tom Cruise, or Tom's Shoes, or TomTom GPS...).  I'm taking nominations for a new name to begin wearing next year.  It needs to meet two critical criteria... first honor someone famous (but not too famous) and secondly, look good on a jersey :) FKA Tom Cuthbert

Blogging About Blogs

This week, I'll be attending Blogworld in Las Vegas for the first time.  I'm looking forward to the show and interested in learning about the world of blogging and social media in general. The conference features thought leaders, bloggers and participants from an industry that is still in it's infancy.  For years I have been fascinated with the blogging phenomenon.  Blogs have connected people, spread ideas and information, created 'micro-celebrities' and contributed to the downfall of the newspaper industry. The term 'blog' is a contraction of 'weblog', first coined by Jorn Barger in 1997 then turned into just 'blog' in 1999.  Today blogs are part of everyday life and a fairly large industry in and of itself.  This week at Blogworld, I plan to learn about that industry and am specifically interested in the sports aspect of blogging.  If you are in this area and will be at Blogworld, I'd love to connect! I have been blogging now for almost two years on everything from Google to Rascal Flatts.  Much of my focus has been on click fraud and online advertising.  I'm not interested in making money off my personal blog, only sharing ideas, connecting with interesting people and ranting about random topics.  However, blogs have definitely been a vehicle for Click Forensics to share information and reach new customers. Finding a blog that interests you is easy.  Sites like Technorati allow you to search by topic and find your interests.  (For example my love of the NBA returns these results)  There are several blogs I read everyday including the Wall St. Journal, Bleacher Report, Silicon Alley Insider and ChrisBrogan.com. Nowadays, setting up a blog could not be easier.  Sites like Wordpress, LiveJournal, Blogger.com and Typepad.  The WSJ Blog recently had a post called "To Blog or Not?".  If you have something to say I encourage you to blog!  It can be therapeutic, entertaining, engaging and even profitable.  Jump in, speak out and blog away... Tom Cuthbert

Beware the “Bahama” Botnet

By Steve O'Brien, Click Forensics Just when you thought the fraudsters couldn’t get any more sophisticated … they surprise you.  Click Forensics researchers have recently discovered one of the most advanced sources of click fraud we’ve seen.  We’ve named it the “Bahama botnet” because when first discovered it was redirecting traffic through 200,000 parked domain sites located in the Bahamas.  It has since been reprogrammed to redirect through other intermediate sites hosted in Amsterdam, the U.K., and even San Jose, CA, but the Bahama name stuck. Interestingly, the Bahama botnet appears to be closely related to the recent spate of “scareware” attacks, such as the one perpetrated against The New York Times digital site just a few days ago, reported by ComputerWorld.  Visitors to the NYTimes.com site were greeted with a pop-up informing them their computer was infected and directed to an authentic-looking site where they could install a program called Personal Antivirus.  Users duped into purchasing this phony software were then infected with a Trojan that gave control of their computer to an unknown third party that we now know to be part of a gang in the Ukraine. We believe the Bahama botnet is controlled by this same gang, or their neighbors down the street. 

More info about the “Ukranian fan club” can be found in Dancho Danchev’s excellent security blog.  We’re pretty sure the Bahama botnet is related to the Ukranian fan club and the NYTimes.com scareware because they each phone back to a bogus “Windows protection” domain located on the same IP address. These sources were originally identified by the Black Hat community, but we believe Click Forensics is the first to discover the breadth and depth of click fraud being perpetrated by the botnets it controls.  And the botnet is incredibly insidious. The video below shows the botnet in action, caught on film and narrated by Click Forensic’s own Matt Graham, the infected machine will exhibit some really funky behavior.  Clicks on organic search results are redirected through a series of parked domains across a number of top-tier ad providers (search engines and ad networks), eventually arriving at an advertiser unrelated to the original query.  The user is momentarily confused, but likely just performs the search again, this time with easy success. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzEqrOmzKzM&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&hd=1&border=1] What makes the botnet so insidious is that it operates intermittently so that the user doesn’t really know that anything is wrong.  Additionally, it can operate independently of the user because the authors appear to be building a large database of authentically user-generated search queries. [caption id="attachment_718" align="alignright" width="500" caption="Seemingly random clicks discovered through advanced pattern detection"]

[/caption] And because the queries come from many different machines (IPs) across a broad segment of the Internet population, it is very difficult to find and identify these clicks as fraudulent.  But these auto-generated clicks were not able to disguise themselves well enough to escape Click Forensics anomaly detection algorithms.  Additionally, large amounts of non-converting clicks were spotted in the data we receive from advertisers.  From there, our team was able to hone in on the source of the Bahama botnet.

The Doctors Are ‘In’

In February of 2006, Click Forensics was just getting off the ground.  We recognized the problem of click fraud was a big problem and that building a solution would be tough technical challenge. [caption id="attachment_709" align="alignright" width="248" caption="Dr. Tuzhilin with the Click Forensics founding team in 2006"][/caption] We decided to bring in an expert in the field of data mining and anomaly detection in click stream analysis.  That expert was Dr. Alex Tuzhilin.  Alex spent the day with us at our offices in San Antonio and provided us a road map for the evolution of our approach to identifying invalid traffic.  His contribution to us at that point was essential and provided tremendous insight.  After reviewing our approach he commented, "Click Forensics has good data and this is a source of their advantage over the search engines. My role is to work with them to refine the scoring methodology to improve accuracy. Their approach is to incorporate as much data as possible to improve accuracy. The search providers simply don't have enough data to have the most accurate approach." Shortly after Alex visit to Texas, I received a call from the lead attorney representing Lane’s Gifts in their lawsuit against Google.  He said, “Tom, I just hired your Ph.D!”  He told me that the judge in that case had mandated that an outside consultant review Google’s click fraud detection methods and publish paper on the efficacy.  Alex spent many weeks at Google and wrote an insightful paper detailing their approach, ultimately describing it as “reasonable”.  The Lane’s Gift case was settled and Alex returned to his role as a professor at NYU. Today we are thrilled to announce that Dr. Tuzhilin has joined the Click Forensics Advisory Board.  Few individuals have had more real-world and academic experience in the measurement of online traffic quality and its effect on advertisers.  His work has helped move the industry toward standards and cooperation.  After visiting us in Austin a few weeks ago and meeting with our technology team, Alex said, “Having firsthand experience reviewing the state of the art in ad network traffic management, I was impressed with the level of technical sophistication the team exhibits and I was impressed with the directions they are going, Click Forensics has played a leadership role in helping the online advertising community to monitor quality of clicks on ads, including identification of invalid clicks. I look forward to continuing to work with the team.” In additional to Dr. Tuzhilin, we have also added Dr. William Wright, the Chief Scientist at Paypal.  Dr. Wright, a Ph.D. in cognitive science, is an artificial intelligence expert who has built numerous analytical and predictive systems over the past twenty years, including the Falcon Credit Card Fraud Detection System at HNC, the Advanced Fraud Screen system at CyberSource, and numerous adversarial modeling systems for the U.S. military.  After spending time with our team, William concluded, “Click Forensics has built a strong team of developers using very advanced machine learning and data mining techniques to detect fraud and measure traffic quality, they are pioneering a new area of fraud detection and I’m finding it satisfying to work closely with them on leveraging lessons from my past experience combating credit card and banking fraud.” One out of every five employees at Click Forensics hold a Ph.D.  Adding the expertise of Alex and William dramatically enhances our ability to meet our goal of providing the state of the art approach to traffic quality management.  I appreciate their contributions and look forward to benefiting from their knowledge in the future. Tom Cuthbert

Search Engine Strategies SJC Recap

While attendance at SES San Jose was definitely down this year, it was still a great show.  I enjoyed meeting people at our booth and appreciated the hard work of our team pulling that all together.  We met a lot of interesting folks and enjoyed hearing feedback on new Click Forensics dashboard. The big hit, of course, were the "Stress Einstein" squishys! Who wouldn't want of these guys!  They reminded me of the bobble-heads in "Night at the Museum 2" :) I also enjoyed participating in a session titled, "Ads in a Quality Score World".   Mike Grehan moderated the panel and both Yahoo (Tomaso Pozzi) and Google (Jonathan Alferness) participated.  WebProNews covered the session and wrote a nice recap.  My presentation is below.

Click to close

Speaker Profile

[slideshare id=1858957&doc=ses0809-090813202600-phpapp01]

The other highlight of the week for me was our Click Quality Council dinner.  We had of 25 executives from ad networks, publishers, advertisers and search engines join us for a great dinner of conversation, networking and fun! The conversation is always interesting when you have people representing all corners of the online advertising ecosystem.  It was the third year we have hosted the CQC dinner in San Jose and our 13th since the Council was formed in 2006. Tom Cuthbert

Building on a Foundation of Success: IAB Guidelines

Over the past week four major players in the online media space have announced accreditation to the Interactive Advertising Bureau’s Click Measurement Guidelines.  This list includes Yahoo!, Google, Microsoft and Business.com.  I wanted to take a moment and explore why you should care about this development and what accreditation means for advertisers. The IAB is a publisher-focused organization that has led the process to develop click measurement guidelines.  The task force is made up of thirty or so companies representing the online advertising community.  Click Forensics has been a member since day one and participated in every step of the process. There are three main benefits for advertisers and conversely, three concerns advertisers need to keep in mind associated with the entire process.  First, the benefits; IAB Accreditation Represents a Commitment The process to become accredited to the IAB guidelines is time consuming and certainly not free.  At Click Forensics, we have first hand knowledge of this and can assure you that any company that takes time and spends the money to become accredited is committed to their customers.  The level of detail the auditors go in to is amazing.  Our community is fortunate to have auditors that have demonstrated a deep commitment to both the development of the process and the implementation of the guidelines. IAB Accreditation Demonstrates Leadership The IAB established a gating period to allow member companies and others to become accredited to the guidelines.  The companies mentioned above were the first to announce compliance.  This is important because it represents a sense of urgency among these four that enhances the urgency for others.  As an advertiser, you should reward these leaders with business.  They were first out of the gate and in my book that demonstrates leadership. IAB Accreditation Means Better Quality Traffic The IAB Guidelines are a lengthy narrative of “best practices” and rules in delivering quality traffic to advertisers.  While it is not intended to be a complete list, it serves as a firm foundation and includes practical steps to help ensure advertisers get what they pay for.  By working with an accredited ad provider, advertisers will be assured that the clicks they are buying have met the guidelines established by the industry.  This is a good thing and an excellent first step. While we applaud the efforts of the IAB, Media Rating Council and member companies who participated in this process, there are things advertisers need to keep in mind.  There was a great deal of discussion and debate during the nearly three years of meetings it took to develop these guidelines.  In that process, there were a lot of valuable and important items that fell to the floor.  This is a good start, not a perfect process.  Keep in mind the following; IAB Accreditation is a “Moment in Time” Process The process for an ad provider to become accredited is a long one.  The auditor is invited in for a pre-assessment then the actual audit begins.  At the end of the process accreditation is awarded.  The problem is there is no mechanism for ongoing compliance.  When we buy gas at the gas station there is a meter that is routinely calibrated to ensure that when we fill our tank with 20 gallons of gasoline, we get 20 gallons.  This approach is not taken nor addressed in the guidelines.  While an annual audit is suggested in the guidelines, it is still important for advertisers to be monitoring their campaigns and holding the ad providers feet to the fire for every click. IAB Accreditation Does Not Cover Everything The 27 page Guideline document is quite comprehensive.  Our task force worked hard to ensure that both the guidelines are made clear and that the standard for measurement is defined.  However, when you consider that the dominant constituency in this process was multibillion-dollar ad providers, you might imagine not everything met their liking.  A few examples of chaff that hit the threshing room floor included:

Click ID – Each click should have a unique identifier so investigations can be “apples to apples” Persistent Cookie – It’s important that ad providers can identify unique visitors to ensure they are billed for only once. Standards for Investigation – Advertisers deserve to feel confident that they get what they pay for.  By setting an investigation format and agreeing to a timeline, ad providers can build trust with customers. IAB Accreditation is a Roadmap There is a Japanese proverb that says, “Beginning is easy and continuing is hard”.  There is truth in this as it relates to the guidelines.  We have begun the process.  We have released guidelines that will make the world of online advertising a better place.  Now we should look to leadership to take the next step and continue what we have begun.  The current guidelines will serve as a roadmap to the future standards.  We need to examine the items removed, listen to the community and think of better ways to ensure advertisers get what they pay for in the future.  The roadmap has been built.  Now we need to move on. In January of 2006 as Click Forensics was just beginning as a company, I wrote the following challenge to our industry: “Define standards for what an unwanted click looks like. We believe that there are certain characteristics or attributes that are common to a large percentage of click fraud. We are working with publishers and advertisers to agree on common ground and work together to expose it. Once this is developed it should be published so that the entire community can benefit from it.” Today, over three years later, we have the cooperation of community leaders, the foundation of technical standards and the desire to continue to improve on what we have built.  I invite you, to join us as we build a future of ongoing growth and improving effectiveness by enhancing the process of online advertising.  I can assure you that both the Click Quality Council and Click Forensics will continue to support the work of the IAB and other industry organizations to work together to make our community a better place.  Let's not stop with the foundation. Tom Cuthbert

Scareware… the Next Internet Ripoff

From spyware to bots to viruses and other unimaginable hazards… the web can be a scary place.  

As far back as Prodigy in the early days of the online world, scams have been a part of the party.  The Internet is simply a new way for the bad guys to rip off unsuspecting consumers.  The key difference though is that the reach is enormous and the damage can spread to more people, more quickly than ever before.

Enter scareware, new way to trick unsuspecting consumers into parting with their money.  USA Today recently had an article about the tricks and tactics used to perpetrate this latest rip off.  Unfortunately, online advertising has become an accomplice to the crime.

Scareware is worthless software that allegedly removes viruses from your computer.  Anyone who has surfed the web knows how easy it can be to become infected with a virus.  The damage to the users computer is often measured in slowed performance, unwanted clicking and potentially even more nefarious things like key logging and password swiping.  Now, the bad guys are selling “scareware” to solve a problem that may not actually exist.

The first such program was called “SpySheriff,” built by a team of cyber crooks from Russia.  The Anti-Phishing Working Group recently reported that scareware infections rose 48% in the second half of 2008.  The growth is tied to the ease of distribution and weaknesses in online advertising and the web in general.

There are several ways these fake products are being distributed.  Phony pages are created using hot search key words such as “American Idol” or “iPhone” and drive the unsuspecting consumer to the infected page.  Recently the Facebook email scam was used to send people to a page by promoting things like “best video.”  Since these emails came from your friends, millions clicked.  Twitter has become a vehicle for distribution. Phony Twitter accounts are created and enticing titles of posts encourage people to click.

Additionally, the bad guys are simply buying display or search ads.  They rotate in infected pages to the landing page.  It is virtually impossible for an ad provider to scan every ad impression and linking page.  This loophole creates an opportunity for the bad guys to drive significant traffic to infected pages at a very low cost.  Microsoft reported finding 4.4M installations of one such program, so the scale is enormous.  Do the math… at $49 or $79, that is big business.

Once someone lands on the page, getting off is nearly impossible.  Immediately upon landing, a “system scan” begins.  The results are, of course, showing that your computer is infected with a number of viruses.  Conveniently you can buy the product at that point and they take your money and run.  If you try to move away from the page, or cancel, an endless number of scans take over your screen.  Essentially, users must “control/alt/delete” their way out or restart.

The danger in this scam is not limited to monetary damage to the consumer.  These type of pages and methods to attract clicks are the same methods used to install spyware, malware and perpetrate click fraud.  To their credit, USA Today has done a good job over the last few years of highlighting the dangers of the web to the average consumer.

The FTC is cracking down.  They have identified products like WinFixer, DriveCleaner and XP AntiVirus as worthless and they are going after the owners.  The problem is that like the click fraud crooks, these guys are in remote locations and move their servers often. Tracking them is a full time job and extremely difficult.  The search engines are trying to help as well.  

Bing has a neat feature that highlights “at risk” url’s.  Yahoo has similar product built with McAfee.

Trust is what keeps consumers clicking on ads.  Without stepped up industry efforts from organizations, like the Anti Phishing Working Groups and others, trust could be diminished.  Like click fraud, scareware is damaging trust.  It takes a community effort to stay after the problem and build solutions to take the scare out of the internet.

Tom Cuthbert

Welcome Bing!

Let's face it, Google needs a competitor.  Microsoft is ready to give them a run for their money (and it's a lot of money).

Last night, here in Seattle, Microsoft lit up the Space Needle to celebrate the launch of Bing.  Time will tell how big an impact Bing will have in search, but history may be on the Microsoft's side. [caption id="attachment_647" align="alignright" width="300" caption="Browser Wars"]

[/caption] As recently as 1997, Netscape had a 80%+ share of the browser market.  Wikipedia recalls the IE 4 release in October of '97..."The release party in San Francisco featured a ten-foot-tall letter "e" logo. Netscape employees showing up to work the following morning found that giant logo on their front lawn, with a sign attached which read "From the IE team." The message also read "We Love You." By 2002, Microsoft had a 96% share. As we say in the sports business, "Don't sleep on Microsoft". [brightcove vid=25062206001&exp=1543292789&w=486&h=412] Sure there will be lots of head to head comparisons between Google and Bing.  But so far, I'm impressed... Wondering what Google has on their front lawn this morning :) Tom Cuthbert

AOL... I Finally Got One Right!

It was January of 2000 and I was in my usual Tuesday morning breakfast group with my friends at Jim's.  We spent time talking about life, family and business.  My friends Matt and Shawn were far wiser than I when it came to business and technology (successful tech entrprenuer and Harvard MBA, respectively).  I was still learning the tech space and was just months away from co-founding my first tech company.  Despite my poor track record (I had recently bought stock in Pancho's Mexican Buffet.... don't laugh!) and lack of experience, I saw this disaster coming. From the early days of the internet, I was there. (You may remember me as 635287874@prodigy.net)  

I had an AOL account even before those CD's started showing up at the checkout line at 7-Eleven.  I didn't know much, but I did know that marrying a red hot new technology company with an old school media firm was a bad idea.  It couldn't work and it didn't work. When the AOL-Time Warner merger was announced in January 2000, the combined market capitalization was $280 billion. Today it is $28B.

So here we are, eight years and billions of dollars in lost shareholder value later.  Now what?  First of all, the spinout makes perfect sense.  It will allow Armstrong and the gang to attempt to rebuild a once proud company into something at least relevant.  It also positions AOL to be a new media company by finding creative ways to leverage the assets (audience) into profit.  I saw the plan and I think it makes sense... Silicon Alley describes the heart of the plan as making AOL more "Google-y".  There is white space below Google.  They own a ridiculous share of the search market and someone will take away market share over the next few years.  Add to that that online advertising continues to grow while traditional media implodes and poof, you have a market opportunity.  AOL is uniquely positioned to play in this space if they fully leverage their assets including ADTECH, Platform A and others. Remember when you went to America Online, errr... I mean AOL, to read content?  They have audience, content and connecting the dots means revenue growth.  I am pulling for them now, in 2000 I was not.  The strategy then was to try and retain the "walled garden" approach and milk dial up income for as long as possible.... bad idea. Good luck Tim, you'll need it.  But you have a shot, and that puts you well ahead of your friends back in 2000. Tom Cuthbert

The Buzz on Click Fraud

The New York Times ran a feature article this week on click fraud.  Why you ask?  Because, like spam, click fraud is still a big problem for advertisers. The article pointed out that as the economy tilts downward, advertisers cannot afford to waste dollars. This is a good news, bad news scenario for online advertising.

The good news is that online advertising is highly measurable.  Large advertisers that traditionally have been offline are now shifting dollars online.  This fact has contributed to online advertising continuing to grow as traditional media is in decline.

The bad news however, is that this window of opportunity is narrow.  The online advertising community must embrace measurability and enhance trust to gain share of spend from the big guys. 

There was a significant event this week that helped in that effort.  The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) released from draft the Click Measurement Guidelines.  This document, three years in the making, is a great start for our community to come together around standards and enhance trust. Dozens of ad providers are busily working with third party audit firms to become accredited to the new guidelines.  Advertisers will have a way to gauge the level of commitment from ad provides when this list is made public.

Click Forensics was proud to represent advertisers in this process.  In fact, we were the only traffic quality management firm to participate and were quoted in the press release from the IAB.  Many thanks are in order for the 38 members of the working group for a job well done.

Now, we find ourselves at the beginning.  An opportunity exists to build on the foundation laid by the IAB member companies.  Click fraud is going to be a problem for a long time to come.  Progress is being made.  But in order to re-accelerate the growth of online advertising we need more than standards.  We need a community effort to work together to ensure advertisers have confidence that they get what they pay for.  Articles raise awareness, documents create a process and awareness builds urgency.  But ultimately it will take the effort of everyone in the community to get to the day where trust is commonplace and online advertising becomes the marvelous, measurable media it can be.  We look forward to continuing our efforts toward that goal.

Tom Cuthbert

Why the Wall St. Journal Rocks

Recently, I've been griping about my local paper and newspapers in general.  The industry is in turmoil and changing rapidly.  One big change will be the way the paper will be read in the future.  Today's announcement about the Kindle DX will make it easier for people like me to eventually switch to a digital reader.  I like this idea and I cannot imagine how newspapers today, in their current form, will survive, except for one...  the Wall St. Journal. I have been an avid Journal reader for years.  The paper has changed for the better in recent years and is setting the pace for an industry in transition.  In fact, of all major newspapers in this country, the Wall St. Journal was the only one to INCREASE paid subscribers in the last month.  While an entire industry cuts content, moves online or folds all-together how can it be that the Journal grows?   There have been several recent changes that I believe have enhanced the reading experience, broadened appeal and made the paper more useful.  That list includes:

Added sports coverage

Adjusted the physical size of the paper

Enhanced the paid online version

Launched an iPhone app

Produce excellent podcasts and vidcasts

Broadened appeal with health, tech and travel

Reformatted the front page for easy scanning

But beyond these enhancements, fundamentally the I enjoy the Journal for three reasons.  First, the perspective is conservative yet thoughtful.  The OpEd page is engaging and thought provoking.  The editorial page in my local paper has become predictable and mundane.  Any column worth reading was syndicated from another paper.  There are essentially no independent thinkers or interesting writers.  While I don't always agree with Peggy Noonan, Kim Strassel or William McGurn, I do respect their perspective.  Secondly, the information I read in the Journal or hear on their podcasts is relevant to me.  Walt Mossberg and Katie Boehret are consistently exceptional with product reviews and insights.  The company coverage is great and news stories are engaging.  From travel to tech and health to book and wine reviews, it fits my lifestyle.

Finally the Journal entertains me in an intelligent way.  Each day there is a story on the front page that delves into topics ranging from Bollywood to windmills.  I'm a sucker for Pepper and Salt, the funny cartoon (my recent favorite at left).  The writing style is accurate when needed and relaxed when appropriate.  I also find the podcast with Gordon Deal to be a great compliment to the paper. So as newspaper executives across the country (and here in my hometown) are scratching their heads try to figure out why they are sinking, they should pick up a copy of the Journal.  I do... everyday. Tom Cuthbert

Good News… Online Will Win!

A few weeks ago I spoke at the Search Engine Strategies conference in New York. I was struck at the conference that people in our industry had their heads down. I recognize the economy is tough and that jobs can be hard to find and keep. But guess what… online advertising will win! Like you, I have friends in traditional media. Newspapers and print in general have been hammered. Radio and outdoor is fading and television is showing signs of weakness. The dollars are shifting to online and with good reason. In my preparation for the presentation (which can be found here) I spoke to senior executives at digital agencies and leading online advertisers. While the title of my presentation was, “Measurement Matters” the focus was on change. There is no doubt that the world of online advertising is at a crossroads. According to a recent IBM survey, over 60% of all advertisers are cutting budgets… 80% of them are trimming more than 15% of the spending. This urgency was clear in this quote from the report,

“Advertisers are aggressively shifting their spend to even more interactive, measurable formats, as providers struggle to move "beyond advertising" to new forms of communication that combine the ROI characteristics of direct marketing with the brand characteristics of traditional advertising.”

The tone I heard when speaking to advertisers and agencies was consistent… “Now more than ever, we need to be sure we get what we pay for”. Jobs are on the line, performance is not optional and measurement matters. Where can advertisers get better value and solid analytics for performance advertising? Online of course! I’ve identified five specific attitudes that need to be addressed to fully capitalize on the shifting dollars…

1) Stand on our strengths – Online advertising is measureable, has a growing reach and new and creative ways to deliver meaningful ad impressions to consumers. These are meaningful strengths that need to be communicated. 2) Tout the targeting –Saying that television advertising can target is like saying you can tell what kind of fish are in the water from the boat. Targeting (behavioral, demographic and geographic) is a strong suit of online advertising that is unmatched in traditional advertising. 3) Get creative with compensation - Advertisers need to (and will) hold agencies feet to the fire. Agencies that embrace this and are open to new models of compensation, will win. 4) Measure, measure and measure – Performance standards, benchmarking and goals are critical for success. The good news is that online holds that as a competitive advantage over traditional media. More tools are available to help with this and insight into campaigns makes a major difference in success. 5) Look beyond the “Big Two” – Yahoo and Google hold a lot of the cards when it comes to online. However, there is a growing community of quality ad networks and publishers that can deliver strong results. I’ll talk more about how to find them in a future post. My presentation included the chart below highlighting a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis I did on our space.The current economic conditions create an opportunity for those of us in the digital world. Now is not the time to complain… it is the time to aggressively promote the benefits that online holds over traditional media. Tom Cuthbert

The Future of Newspapers

A few weeks ago I noticed that the Business section was missing form my Sunday paper.  I vented by posting a tweet and followed up by sending an email to the business editor of the paper.  After a few days I received a well written reply. It stated, 

Unfortunately, we have discontinued the Sunday and Monday Business sections. We are not happy about it, but at the end of the day it was an action that had to be taken for the good of the institution. I am sure you are aware that we are on the cusp of technological, cultural and generational forces that are reshaping the information landscape. Add to that the most corrosive financial environment since the Great Depression and you can see the perfect storm that has slammed into the traditional business model for the general circulation newspaper.

First of all, I appreciate him taking time to respond.  I enjoy reading actual newspapers and read several of them every day.  I recognize that the industry is changing and in deep turmoil, but it seems to me there are lots of other areas to cut besides the Business section.  Maybe I'm not a typical reader since my favorite publication is the Wall St. Journal.      

My response was, in part...

Thank you for writing me back.  I recognize the difficulties all print publications have as people change habits to online.  I have followed the Seattle PI switch with interest and you are right, it is a changing world.  I know you guys are in a tough spot.  I certainly don't have the answers.  I can tell you as a technology person in this community I rely on your paper to keep me informed.  I will also tell you that  dropping Sunday and Monday will cause me to consider my subscription.    I encourage you to think of ways to enhance the coverage, more deeply engage readers, pull in more regional information and create new ways to rebuild, not retrench.  (Twitter and other social media outlets may hold some answers)

So what is the future for papers like mine?  Henry Blodget wrote and interesting article titled, "Our Plan to Fix the New York Times".  In it he discusses several options for papers.  

In the end, the business model is flawed given the access to data that people have.  Blogs, micro papers and online publications are pulling readership away from print.  Classified ads are less effective than ever now that they compete with Craigslist and EBay.  Even searching for homes has moved from print to Zillow and other online sites.

At the end of the day I do believe I predicted the future correctly when I wrote, 'Future conversation with my son (circa 2034) "Really Pop?  Someone actually 'threw' a PAPER copy of the news on our driveway?  No way!".  

Too bad, but that is the direction we are heading.

Tom Cuthbert

SES New York 2009

I attended the Search Engine Strategies conference in New York this week.  It was a very different show than last year.  The crowds were down, keynotes were less engaging and more people that ever are dressing up.   One other notable change, there was no click fraud panel.  It was just a year ago that the Search Engine Watch said the top story coming out of SES Day 1 was "Yahoo cozies up its click fraud critics".  Too bad, because click fraud is certainly a topic on the minds of advertisers, agencies and publishers.  One blogger noted, " In these hard times, it's more fun to talk about silly tweets than evil cheats."  Maybe true but "silly tweets" are only wasting time, not advertising dollars... I did enjoy participating on my panel titled, “Pay-for-Performance: Winning Strategies for Advertisers and Agencies.”   I've posted my presentation below.  Additionally, a video recap can be found here. [slideshare id=1195434&doc=sesnyc090324-090325080029-phpapp01]   Tom Cuthbert